Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 10.968541 12.571179 14.298798 16.296170 18.538227 20.973634 23.815627
2025-07-06 8.064989 10.111548 12.493374 15.456764 19.030376 23.185521 28.366226
2025-07-13 7.067221 9.377277 12.197809 15.869534 20.494563 26.096143 33.359425
2025-07-20 6.246971 8.724063 11.881434 16.160168 21.760102 28.787396 38.212439
2025-07-27 5.495827 8.033467 11.393714 16.110992 22.494059 30.753167 42.155557
2025-08-03 4.832597 7.372673 10.857804 15.912661 22.964643 32.347016 45.643358
2025-08-10 4.347276 6.898458 10.514543 15.917101 23.664587 34.232627 49.561899
2025-08-17 3.978085 6.548450 10.303305 16.068443 24.546792 36.377006 53.902062
2025-08-24 3.610161 6.158456 9.991302 16.032607 25.133381 38.108403 57.715264
2025-08-31 3.264581 5.765745 9.635689 15.891638 25.535388 39.569348 61.179833
2025-09-07 3.015386 5.501386 9.450543 15.985632 26.275459 41.533244 65.435170
2025-09-14 2.869946 5.393407 9.499148 16.438430 27.574736 44.367132 71.078538
2025-09-21 2.604043 5.059668 9.163708 16.265525 27.906032 45.787042 74.712690
2025-09-28 2.255162 4.544972 8.485616 15.481231 27.211908 45.593303 75.867711
2025-10-05 2.146714 4.453647 8.516585 15.875442 28.436649 48.425866 81.809540
2025-10-12 2.031791 4.338384 8.494720 16.172935 29.509761 51.055779 87.529780
2025-10-19 1.875135 4.127077 8.283393 16.121378 29.984306 52.732140 91.781317
2025-10-26 1.713275 3.888837 8.002849 15.923740 30.189764 53.966268 95.351463
2025-11-02 1.593062 3.722413 7.841740 15.927902 30.739001 55.781898 99.932422
2025-11-09 1.501234 3.605583 7.764921 16.079434 31.550597 58.062765 105.362156
2025-11-16 1.395290 3.447859 7.595725 16.043542 32.017945 59.769067 109.879770
2025-11-23 1.287130 3.274026 7.380340 15.902499 32.280266 61.123808 113.837860
2025-11-30 1.212089 3.166578 7.290082 15.996546 32.976798 63.254768 119.196430